My 5th annual technology sector predictions is posted over at VentureBeat, a leading technology journal/blog in Silicon Valley.  An excerpt and full link below:

In hindsight and as an entrepreneur, I would say that I wasn’t risk-taking enough in my predictions. Now that I’m putting together predictions for 2012, there’s a global crisis looming, Europe is about to collapse, China’s real estate bubble is bursting and the U.S. is possibly being sucked deeper into the economic abyss, so what do I have to lose? Especially if the Mayan predictions come true, no one will be around to mock my predictions in 2013. So doom and gloom plus bold and big is the general theme for this 5th annual edition of my technology predictions. And here they are:

Mojo Shifts from Amazon to Big Box Retailers

Several states will lift their sales tax amnesties for online businesses in 2012. Those amnesties have provided huge competitive advantage to Amazon. How many shoppers do you know who check out items at brick and mortar stores and then buy them on Amazon? I believe those days are numbered and Amazon will take a big blow once the amnesties are lifted. The companies to gain the most from this are big box retailers (i.e. Walmart, Target, Best Buy) and possibly eBay.

The ecommerce space has become like a Hollywood fitness guru that presents the latest, hottest biz model every year. It went from flash sales to vertical flash sales to curated ecommerce to LoMo social commerce to LoMo SoMo OhNo and so on. While some sites are making a killing, I don’t see them growing big enough to benefit significantly from Amazon’s loss as much as the big box retailers. Most of these new ecommerce companies struggle with logistics, inventory management, customer acquisition and fighting to maintain healthy margins as they work on those other areas…

2012 Predictions: It’s Doom & Gloom for Amazon, RIM and Zynga